UFC 323 is one of the biggest upcoming events of the year, featuring two title fights, elite contenders, rising prospects, and several action-packed matchups.
Fans have been waiting for the rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan for a long time, and this event finally brings the fight back to the octagon.
Along with that, the flyweight division features another exciting title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van, a bout that could shift the future of the division.
This detailed analysis covers all 14 fights, including fighter strengths, recent performances, styles, and logical predictions for each matchup.
The goal is to provide a structured, SEO-optimised article that answers fan questions and gives readers a complete breakdown of UFC 323.
Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan – Bantamweight Title Fight
The highly anticipated rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan headlines UFC 323. Their first fight showed how closely matched they are as competitors.
Merab brings extraordinary cardio, chain wrestling, and pressure, while Yan brings elite boxing, timing, and countering.
Merab’s Strengths
- Endless stamina
- High takedown attempts
- Strong top pressure
- Mental toughness and consistency
Yan’s Strengths
- Crisp boxing
- Sharp footwork
- Excellent takedown defence
- Calm and technical approach
Their first meeting was extremely competitive, and many believed Yan was close to winning several exchanges.
However, Merab has only improved since then, beating top contenders with dominant wrestling and pace. The longer the fight goes, the more it favours him.
Winner Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili
Yan will have great moments early, but Merab’s pressure and cardio should control most rounds again. Merab wins by decision.
Co-Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van – Flyweight Title Fight
Alexandre Pantoja remains one of the most dangerous flyweights in UFC history. His blend of grappling, striking power, and aggression has overwhelmed elite fighters.
Joshua Van is talented, fast, and constantly improving, but this is a massive step up in competition.
Pantoja’s Strengths
- High-level jiu-jitsu
- Aggressive forward pressure
- Extensive championship experience
- Ability to scramble and create wild exchanges
Joshua Van’s Strengths
- Fast combinations
- Good movement
- Young and confident
- Improving with every fight
Van has talent but lacks the deep experience needed for a champion like Pantoja. Over five rounds, Pantoja’s grappling advantage is huge.
Winner Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja
Pantoja’s experience and submissions should be too much. Expect a submission or a dominant decision.
Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov – Light Heavyweight Bout
Jan Błachowicz brings legendary power and a well-rounded skill set, but he is ageing and no longer as explosive as he once was.
Guskov, on the other hand, is a dangerous striker with aggressive finishing ability.
Key Factors
- Jan has experience and strong grappling skills
- Guskov is faster and hits hard early
If Jan can drag this fight past the first round, he has a clear advantage. Guskov is dangerous but struggles when taken down or forced to slow the pace.
Winner Prediction: Jan Błachowicz
Jan uses grappling and experience to control the fight and win by decision or late submission.
Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira – Flyweight Bout
This is a classic matchup of experience versus rising talent. Brandon Moreno has fought the best in the division and is known for his heart, chin, and pace.
Tatsuro Taira is one of the cleanest grapplers in the division and continues to dominate opponents with technique.
Key Factors
- Moreno has better boxing and experience
- Taira’s grappling transitions are elite
If Moreno keeps the fight standing, he can win with volume. But if Taira gets even one solid position on the ground, he can control the fight.
Winner Prediction: Tatsuro Taira
Taira’s grappling advantage should be the deciding factor. Expect a submission or control-heavy decision.
Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott – Bantamweight Bout
This matchup is fascinating because it pits the seasoned Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo against the young rising prospect Payton Talbott.
Cejudo brings a championship mindset and technical mastery, but Talbott has the youth, size, and momentum.
Key Factors
- Cejudo’s wrestling and fight IQ
- Talbott’s physicality and pressure
Cejudo is smart, but Talbott’s pace and youth may overwhelm him.
Winner Prediction: Payton Talbott
Talbott wins with pressure and output. Cejudo may struggle with the speed and length.
Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres – Lightweight Bout
Grant Dawson is one of the top grapplers in the lightweight division, while Manuel Torres brings knockout power and unpredictable striking.
Key Factors
- Dawson’s wrestling
- Torres’ finishing power
If Dawson secures takedowns, he dominates. If Torres catches him early, Dawson could be in trouble.
Winner Prediction: Grant Dawson
Dawson wins by submission or control-based decision.
Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan – Lightweight Bout
This is a high-action fight. Terrance McKinney is known for explosive starts but often fades. Chris Duncan is tough, durable, and capable of weathering early storms.
Key Factors
- McKinney’s early knockout threat
- Duncan’s durability and consistency
If the fight goes past round one, Duncan’s chances increase dramatically.
Winner Prediction: Chris Duncan
Duncan survives early chaos and wins by TKO or decision.
Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva – Women’s Flyweight Bout
Maycee Barber has improved her striking and confidence, while Karine Silva is one of the best submission hunters in the division.
Key Factors
- Barber’s physical strength
- Silva’s submission threat
Barber has grown smarter and more measured in fights. If she avoids grappling mistakes, she should take the win.
Winner Prediction: Maycee Barber
Barber wins by decision with strong clinch work and striking.
Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira – Middleweight Bout
Marvin Vettori brings durability, cardio, and consistency. Brunno Ferreira has tremendous knockout power but is much more limited in deeper rounds.
Key Factors
- Vettori’s chin and pressure
- Ferreira’s explosive power
If Vettori avoids getting clipped early, he should dominate the fight.
Winner Prediction: Marvin Vettori
Vettori wins by decision or late TKO due to volume and pressure.
Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner – Lightweight Bout
Edson Barboza is a veteran still capable of highlight performances. Jalin Turner, however, is longer, faster, and much younger.
Key Factors
- Barboza’s kicks and experience
- Turner’s reach, speed, and knockout threat
Barboza can win if he avoids big shots, but Turner’s athletic edge is significant.
Winner Prediction: Jalin Turner
Turner likely wins by TKO or decision.
Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan – Light Heavyweight Bout
A matchup of powerful strikers who love forward pressure. Baraniewski is more technical, while Aslan is more aggressive.
Key Factors
- Baraniewski’s accuracy
- Aslan’s chaotic power
Technical discipline usually wins these matchups.
Winner Prediction: Iwo Baraniewski
Expect a knockout or decision win for Baraniewski.
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trócoli – Middleweight Bout
Mansur Abdul-Malik is a strong grappler with heavy top control. Antonio Trócoli is dangerous at range but inconsistent.
Key Factors
- Abdul-Malik’s grappling
- Trócoli’s striking
Abdul-Malik should have a clear path to victory through wrestling.
Winner Prediction: Mansur Abdul-Malik
Likely a dominant decision or submission.
Nazim Sadykhov vs Farès Ziam – Lightweight Bout
This matchup is extremely competitive. Sadykhov pushes a strong pace with pressure striking, while Ziam is calm, technical, and smart.
Key Factors
- Sadykhov’s pressure
- Ziam’s precision
Ziam’s defensive style may frustrate Sadykhov.
Winner Prediction: Farès Ziam
Ziam wins a close decision based on technique.
Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos – Featherweight Bout
Muhammad Naimov has proven himself with strong wins and solid grappling. Mairon Santos is explosive but less polished.
Key Factors
- Naimov’s balance of striking and wrestling
- Santos’ wild, aggressive style
Naimov should control the fight with IQ and fundamentals.
Winner Prediction: Muhammad Naimov
Decision or late TKO.
Final Recap of UFC 323 Predictions
- Merab Dvalishvili def. Petr Yan
- Alexandre Pantoja def. Joshua Van
- Jan Błachowicz def. Bogdan Guskov
- Tatsuro Taira def. Brandon Moreno
- Payton Talbott def. Henry Cejudo
- Grant Dawson def. Manuel Torres
- Chris Duncan def. Terrance McKinney
- Maycee Barber def. Karine Silva
- Marvin Vettori def. Brunno Ferreira
- Jalin Turner def. Edson Barboza
- Iwo Baraniewski def. Ibo Aslan
- Mansur Abdul-Malik def. Antonio Trócoli
- Farès Ziam def. Nazim Sadykhov
- Muhammad Naimov def. Mairon Santos
Ashish Lavania is a dedicated combat sports analyst and the mind behind some of the most detailed breakdowns in modern fight media. Specializing in UFC, MMA, and boxing analysis, Ashish combines deep technical knowledge with a fan-first approach, delivering insights that are easy to understand yet backed by real fighting IQ.